Creating Confidence in an Uncertain Immigration Landscape

As we move into 2026, one thing is clear: uncertainty in the immigration and labor landscape isn’t going away. For employers who rely on seasonal and temporary labor, particularly through the H‑2B program, the stakes have never been higher.

In a recent webinar with Kyle Farmer and Vas Sakamuri, we broke down what’s happening with H‑2B right now, what employers should realistically expect this year, and—most importantly—what you can do to protect your business from staffing disruptions.

Below is a summary of the key takeaways.

The H‑2B Program: A Quick Refresher

The H‑2B program allows U.S. employers to hire foreign nationals for temporary or seasonal, non‑agricultural work. While demand for the program has surged over the past decade, the statutory cap has not changed: 66,000 visas per fiscal year.

That cap is split evenly:

• 33,000 visas for workers starting October 1
• 33,000 visas for workers starting April 1

In the early years of the program, this wasn’t an issue. Demand was relatively low, and the cap was rarely reached. Today, the opposite is true. The program now hits its cap every year—and often very quickly.

To address this, Congress has periodically authorized supplemental H‑2B visas, giving DHS the ability to release additional visas beyond the statutory cap. For several years, these supplemental releases helped stabilize the program.

That stability is now in question.

What’s Different This Year

On New Year’s Eve, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Labor announced their intent to release significantly fewer supplemental visas than in prior years—roughly 50% of historical levels.

Even more concerning, DHS signaled that these visas may be limited to “critical infrastructure sectors,” such as seafood processing and forestry. Historically, supplemental visas were not restricted by industry.

What this means for employers:

• Demand will continue to far exceed supply
• Competition for visas will intensify
• Some industries may be excluded altogether
• Timing and predictability will be harder than ever

At the time of the webinar, the final rule had not yet been released, leaving employers in limbo. Until that rule is published, no one can say with certainty who will qualify or how fast the supplemental visas will be exhausted.

The Real‑World Business Impact

When labor becomes unpredictable, the consequences ripple across your entire operation:

• Lost or delayed contracts
• Missed revenue targets
• Inaccurate financial forecasting
• Strain on existing employees, leading to burnout and turnover
• Downstream supply‑chain disruptions
• Lower customer and guest satisfaction

Even short delays in worker arrivals can compound quickly, putting pressure on teams that are already stretched thin.

For many employers, relying solely on H-2B is no longer a sustainable risk strategy.

Building Redundancy: Domestic Recruitment as a Backstop

To help employers manage this volatility, Farmer Enterprises has expanded its Domestic Recruitment Program—a complementary solution designed to reduce dependence on the H‑2B cap.

This program focuses on foreign nationals who are already legally present in the United States and authorized to work, including individuals with valid Employment Authorization Documents (EADs).

Because these workers are already in‑country:

• No visa lottery is required
• No numerical cap applies
• Hiring timelines are dramatically shorter

For employers, this creates a critical issue when:

• H‑2B filings land late in the lottery
• Supplemental visas fall short
• Certain industries are excluded
• Immediate staffing needs arise

How the Program Works

We apply the same rigor to domestic recruitment that we do to H‑2B:

• Workforce and role mapping
• Market‑based wage analysis
• Geographic feasibility review
• Housing and transportation planning (when needed)
• Targeted recruitment through a vetted national pipeline

Once a role is launched, employers often begin meeting candidates within days, not months.

This flexibility allows businesses to stabilize operations, protect revenue, and reduce burnout among existing staff—without jeopardizing pending H-2B applications.

Additional Strategies Within H-2B

For employers who continue to use H-2B, there are still ways to improve predictability:

• Leveraging the October cap (which historically faces less competition than April)
• Transferring workers already in H-2B status who are not subject to the cap
• Monitoring potential legislative changes that could expand cap exemptions

These strategies are highly company‑specific and require careful planning, but they can make a meaningful difference in the right circumstances.

The Bottom Line

The H-2B program isn’t going away, but it is becoming more competitive, more restrictive, and less predictable.

Employers who succeed in 2026 will be those who:

• Plan early
• Build redundancy into their labor strategy
• Avoid over‑reliance on any single visa program

At Farmer Enterprises, our goal is simple: help you stay staffed, compliant, and operational—no matter how volatile the immigration landscape becomes.

To discuss your specific situation or explore options for your workforce, contact us today.